Now that we’ve pretty much pinned down September 10th as the date for the introduction of new iPhone 5S (and possibly the iPhone 5C), the next big date on our September calendars should be the release date. Why wait for linkbait filled exclusives using unnamed sources? Let’s use history as the marker in an attempt to figure out when we might be able to get our hands on Apple’s latest and greatest iPhone.

iPhone 5S release date

The first iPhone was a January 9th, 2007 introduction date and didn’t find its way to shelves until Friday, June 29th, 2007. It was the first, making it more of statistical aberration. The next two models followed very similar patterns. The iPhone 3G was announced on June 9th, 2008, with a Tuesday, July 11th release date. The following year, Apple start the ‘S’ series, introducing the iPhone 3GS on June 9th, 2009, followed by an on-sale date of Friday, July 11th.

iPhone 5S release date

The trend was so similar that people started to formulate a belief that every summer, we could expect a new iPhone in July. Outside of year one, Apple doesn’t pre-announce iPhones, so this semi-ritualistic summer release put people at ease. They could count on a new iPhone, just as they could a hearty season of BBQ and hot weather. The summer trend continued with the iPhone 4, but Apple was even more aggressive with their rollout. Announced on June 7th, customers could purchase one on Thursday, June 24th. After three Friday releases, they shifted to Thursday?

Here’s where things get funky. Apple makes big changes every two years, delivering internal improvements with the ‘S’ models. However, the summer of 2011 came and went without a new phone. Goodbye comfort of enjoying the bright glare of summer sunshine on your new iOS device. The iPhone 4S was introduced on October 4th, 2011, with a Friday, October 14th ship date. Whew, at least there is some comfort in knowing they went back to a Friday schedule. What’s better than a three day weekend? One filled with enjoying your new phone.

Would they get back on a summer schedule for 2012? It didn’t seem likely. With iOS betas starting to hit at the beginning of the summer, it makes sense for new hardware to debut alongside the new iOS releases. It also provides Apple with a strong product portfolio going into the brisk holiday sales season. On September 12th, Tim Cook showed off the new iPhone 5, complete with a 4-inch display. Guess what, the Friday following that announcement, Apple drops the iPhone 5.

Let’s put this all together. To date, we’ve had six iPhones released. The seventh model will be called the iPhone 5S, because that makes plenty of sense. Jokes aside, the summer hardware schedule seems to be a thing of the past. iOS software betas will rule the summer. Fall is your new hardware season. Out of the six iPhones, every single one but the iPhone 4, was released on Friday. The more recent release dates were the week following the event. If we go by Apple’s history, our prediction is for a September 20th, 2013 release date for the iPhone 5S.

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