The movie "21"

[smknSRT8]

Has anyone seen this movie??

If so, there is a math problem in the beginning of the movie that is about a game show and three doors. two of the doors have goats behind them and the other has a car. the contestant chooses door #1. The host tells the contestant that behind door #3 and asks the contestest if he would like to switch his choice from 1 to 2. The contest (being the student in the class at MIT) says YES why wouldnt I!?! "Thats 66% chances, thanks for the 33%"

Can anyone tell me the reason that this is?
In the movie they talked about linear variation.

Can iPhone solve this!?!? haha

[Youngbinks]

Here is a link to a site explaining it pretty well.

http://mathforum.org/dr.math/faq/faq.monty.hall.html

[iphoneconnie]

I have not seen the movie, but I read the book, great read.

[Hayesimus]

that's a load of crap. whether you say 2/3 or 1/2 it doesn't change the scenario... they made that WAY more complicated than neccessary...

[Alexander]

Originally Posted by Hayesimus

that's a load of crap. whether you say 2/3 or 1/2 it doesn't change the scenario... they made that WAY more complicated than neccessary...

Solid arguement Hayes, with that kind of logic you may have just gave Prof. Francois Bergeron and Steven R. Costenoble of Drexel University a run for their money.

[smknSRT8]

Originally Posted by Hayesimus

that's a load of crap. whether you say 2/3 or 1/2 it doesn't change the scenario... they made that WAY more complicated than neccessary...

I am confused?? you have a 66% chance of winning the car if you switch after the host tells you what the "non-car" door is??

[Hayesimus]

that's what I'm saying is more complicated than neccessary. Regardless of how Manu doors you start out with, if you have to choose between tqlwo doors then your odds are 50/50. No way around it.

[smknSRT8]

Originally Posted by Hayesimus

that's what I'm saying is more complicated than neccessary. Regardless of how Manu doors you start out with, if you have to choose between tqlwo doors then your odds are 50/50. No way around it.

i understand the problem, I was confused with what you said. I dont agree with 50/50 though because. Also, I know you know this but the guys are from MIT, they can most likely crunch number better than we can.

If you dont believe it, then just play the game 100 times and if you switch after you find out the door where the "non-car" is, you will win 66% of the time.

I didnt necessarily believe it at first but gave 40 or so tries at work and it was higher than i thought

[Hayesimus]

I'm saying that it doesn't matter. It doesn't change the fact that between two choices there is a 50/50 chance. The 66% I'd when you include the door that was eliminated. Which is pointless. This whole scenario is pointless! Does this give us world peace? Does it put an end to hunger?! Does it give us MMS on the iPhone!?!?!

[styfle]

imo its bs
math on paper is different in real life
especially probability
u can actually try it here http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html
it was 50/50 for me and i tried it like 10 times