How many unlocked iPhones? 250,000!!!

Tinman · 10-23-2007, 12:45 PM

"According to Apple COO, Tim Cook, 250,000.

"Apple’s efforts to prevent customers from modifying, or "unlocking," iPhones to work on networks other than Apple’s carrier partner in the United States, AT&T Corp., also frustrated users — and sparked lawsuits.
Apple’s "guess" is that buyers of 250,000 of the 1.4 million iPhones sold so far intended to unlock them, Cook said."
-Yahoo News

Assuming that includes iPhones that were (only) jailbroken too, and not unlocked, this number is pretty darn high. If it only includes unlocked iPhones, then the combined number of unlocked and jailbroken iPhones should be even higher.

I’ve had a gut feeling that it was around 10%, maybe 15% tops.

But 18%, and coming from the Apple COO himself, is quite a shock to me. Keep in mind unlocking didn’t really get started till September.

So much for unlockers/jailbreakers being in the super-small minority, as many have claimed.

This also speaks well about future iPhone sales, outside the USA. If people are scampering to buy iPhones now, I can only imagine the influx of sales when it is available much more easily."

http://justanotheriphoneblog.com/wor...ocked-iphones/

--
Mike

kdarling · 10-23-2007, 01:07 PM

Yes, he meant just unlocked. That is, phones that were sold but never got activated... so they assume they're being used on other carriers.

The total number of jailbroke (for mods, including unlocking) phones is estimated at close to 50% by some.

Knowing this, it's easier to understand why Apple is going to support third party apps. Otherwise they've more or less lost control over half their devices, and tick off (or further isolate) a *lot* of customers each time they do an update.

Tinman · 10-23-2007, 01:16 PM

Originally Posted by kdarling

Yes, he meant just unlocked. That is, phones that were sold but never got activated... so they assume they're being used on other carriers.

The total number of jailbroke (for mods, including unlocking) phones is estimated at close to 50% by some.

Knowing this, it's easier to understand why Apple is going to support third party apps. Otherwise they've more or less lost control over half their devices, and tick off (or further isolate) a *lot* of customers each time they do an update.

Wow, 50%? Kdarling, do you by chance have a link or anything for that? If I can find something out there, I'd like to update the blog entry. Heck, even something showing 30% or so would be great. Thx.

--
Mike

Indy · 10-23-2007, 02:49 PM

Love hearing news like this. . .hopefully apple will heed the call and do something great in the near future!

The people want to be able to make their phones their own, well give them what they want...hopefully see good things after SDK is released, really looking foward to it!

I purchased an outdated magazine recently that had the top 25 things iphone could not do (most of them being things we discuss here) or something like that. . .I hope other phone makers are adding most if not all of this stuff to their new models and release in the next 6 months or so, apple can't sit around and not do anything for long if that happens to be the case....

We shall see!

=D

ColsTiger · 10-23-2007, 02:59 PM

Originally Posted by Tinman

"According to Apple COO, Tim Cook, 250,000.
"Apple’s efforts to prevent customers from modifying, or "unlocking," iPhones to work on networks other than Apple’s carrier partner in the United States, AT&T Corp., also frustrated users — and sparked lawsuits.
Apple’s "guess" is that buyers of 250,000 of the 1.4 million iPhones sold so far intended to unlock them, Cook said."
-Yahoo News

Assuming that includes iPhones that were (only) jailbroken too, and not unlocked, this number is pretty darn high. If it only includes unlocked iPhones, then the combined number of unlocked and jailbroken iPhones should be even higher.

I’ve had a gut feeling that it was around 10%, maybe 15% tops.

But 18%, and coming from the Apple COO himself, is quite a shock to me. Keep in mind unlocking didn’t really get started till September.

So much for unlockers/jailbreakers being in the super-small minority, as many have claimed.

This also speaks well about future iPhone sales, outside the USA. If people are scampering to buy iPhones now, I can only imagine the influx of sales when it is available much more easily."

http://justanotheriphoneblog.com/wor...ocked-iphones/

--
Mike

It's really not a hard number to determine. Simple subtract the number of at&t iphone data plans from the number of iphones sold and you get the number of phones that were unlocked for use on other GSM systems. At&t has started almost 1.2 million iphone accounts and Apple has sold over 1.4 million iphones. Either people are hiding them until Christmas or they're unlocking for use with T-Mobile.

beej · 10-23-2007, 03:09 PM

Originally Posted by kdarling

Yes, he meant just unlocked. That is, phones that were sold but never got activated... so they assume they're being used on other carriers.

The total number of jailbroke (for mods, including unlocking) phones is estimated at close to 50% by some.

Knowing this, it's easier to understand why Apple is going to support third party apps. Otherwise they've more or less lost control over half their devices, and tick off (or further isolate) a *lot* of customers each time they do an update.

IIRC there is/was a way to use the phone without activating it w/AT&T (or any other carrier), right? I'm pretty sure it was a BIG topice of conversation at one time. If that's the case, then those phones would be included in that number. ( I could be totally wrong about this, but I did want to bring it up as a point of discussion in case I am correct).

I'd also be very interested in seeing some evidence behind the 50% modded figure. Sounds optimistic.

SmartAlx · 10-24-2007, 10:09 AM

Originally Posted by beej

IIRC there is/was a way to use the phone without activating it w/AT&T (or any other carrier), right? I'm pretty sure it was a BIG topice of conversation at one time. If that's the case, then those phones would be included in that number. ( I could be totally wrong about this, but I did want to bring it up as a point of discussion in case I am correct).

The touch made those phones obsolete. I'm sure there are still some iPhone owners who just use it as a fancy iPod without the phone functions, but I would think that many have since sold their iPhones and purchased a touch.

I'd also be very interested in seeing some evidence behind the 50% modded figure. Sounds optimistic.

Yeah, it's probably a hair optimistic, but not by much. My bet is 40%, although of the 3 people that I know that have the iPhone, none of us have modded it yet. (I'm just waiting to get my home computer up and running. I don't even have any decent music/videos on it yet and I'm still on 1.0.1 since I can't update it. Maybe I'll swing by the Apple store this weekend to update it.

That's how I got 1.0.1. LOL)

ahduke99 · 10-24-2007, 02:20 PM

hacked may not be that high .. and development is slowing of apps. i havent seen a useful update of an app in almost a week except a for themes. mobilechat and apolloIM have both hit walls it seems like. nothing has progressed in them for 2 weeks.

x999x · 10-24-2007, 04:53 PM

I'm skeptical.

First off, are we even sure that 1.4 million units have been sold or have they simply been manufactured and are sitting on store shelves? Every company totals their units sold in different ways, Sony uses the latter method, while a company like Nintendo uses actual product sold and in customer's hands for their totals. That first bit will make a huge dent in the numbers if 1.4 aren't exactly in hand.

Secondly, I am assuming most of these phones are just unlocked models sold in other countries that don't have iphones available to them, but have very strong Apple consumer bases, case in point, Japan...

Theres really no money to be made in selling modded phones, but theres a goldmine waiting for whoever can push unlocked ones, and thats what I believe is driving the numbers so high, not "frustrated consumers" but "opportunistic vendors."

I'm leaving the building now.

kdarling · 10-24-2007, 05:26 PM

1) From previous comments by them, I do believe Apple counts shipments as "sold". The question remains if they also count warranty replacements (and I think there are many) in that number. My guess: they do.

2) Yes, it's a safe bet that most unlocked phones are being sold in Canada, the former Iron Curtain countries, and in the Far East such as Thailand. These all seem to be hotbeds of iPhone activity on the web.

3) I originally repeated a 50% mod rate that I had read... but like others, I think perhaps more like 40%. In either case, a lot. After all, it was hard to imagine 20% being unlocked, either!!