[robhon]

I think yes. Double the price of the subsidized phone.

Here's why.

1) Because of all the reports that came out about "missing iPhones." Now everyone has hard data on how much revenue is lost to unlocked phones. It'll be an attempt to recapture some of the revenue. (Especially in a down market, to help stem losses from slowing iPod sales.)

2) China. China Mobile is not going to do revenue sharing. No way no how. But Apple needs the iPhone in that market without them going through black market channels. China is the largest market in the world for cell phones. There is a huge pent up demand there that Apple needs to capture soon before the opportunity slips away.