Piper Jaffrey’s Gene Munster interviewed 608 iPhone buyers in San Francisco, and found a number of interesting statistics:
- 77% were upgrades, up from 56% in ’09 and 38% in ’08
- 16% were switching to AT&T
- 54% were buying the 32GB version
- 28% already had an iPad, and 39% of those that didn’t were planning to in the next year.
From these interviews, he’s pegging the first three day’s sales at 1.0-1.5 million iPhone 4s, including pre-orders. Oppenheimer’s Yair Reiner is a bit more optimistic, claiming 1.5 million on the launch day. He calculates this by using the following logic: 600,000 pre-orders; 100,000 walk ins; 50,000 at Best Buy. He then multiplies the whole thing by two to account for the international market.
We’ll know for certain when Apple sends out a news release, but you can bet it will be a big number.
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